How I Know When a Show Is Going to “Work”

It’s the question every prospective investor asks when they’re approached about a new musical:

How do you know this one is going to “work”?

Let me let you in on a little secret:

I don’t.

I mean it. I have no idea whether the show I’m pitching will “work.” In the same way I can’t predict what may happen tomorrow, I also can’t anticipate audience response. I’ve seen massive productions with A-list talent that looked like surefire hits on paper flop with audiences. I’ve watched extraordinary new musicals with glowing reviews fizzle out on Broadway simply because another, hotter show was soaking up all the attention. No matter how you stack the deck, there are always some variables you can’t control.

And I try to be honest with my prospective investors about that. Everyone knows Broadway investing is risky. So how do I express confidence in a project despite the odds?

I make projections based on comparables.

What other successful shows of similar scale, scope, or subject matter suggest that this new one could hit as well?

Within that, I focus on a few key elements:

1) Hook: I get extremely specific in answering one question: What is the one thing that will get audiences in the door? If it's a star, I look at recent successful star vehicles and compare the circumstances. If it’s based on a major IP, I look at other strong adaptations and the strength of the original brand. If it’s wholly original with no celebrity draw, I examine the show’s trajectory—where it played before Broadway, how it was received, and what similar projects have followed that same path successfully.

2) Running Costs: For most investors, the bottom line is: How much does the show cost? A $12 million Broadway musical will likely recoup faster than a $25 million one—but the real determining factor is weekly running costs. If a show can run lean—in the $600–700k per week range—and gross over $1 million, it can recoup far faster than a show running at $800–900k, which needs to gross around $1.5 million weekly to recoup at a similar pace. So I ask myself: Can this show realistically gross $X per week? In some cases, the more expensive show might be the safer choice, only if I really believe it can be a big grosser. Again, I answer all of this by studying comparables.

3) Marketing and Advertising Plan: On Broadway, marketing and advertising budgets can run into the millions—and they need to, because every other show is spending just as much to grab consumer attention. With 41 Broadway theatres and countless Off- and Off-Off-Broadway productions playing every night (not to mention all the other nightlife events in this city), your show must reach the right audience and stand out. On any show I commit to, I want to ensure the marketing spend is realistic and that the team has a clear vision for who their audience is, what the show is about, and why consumers should see it, so that every dollar spent on marketing and advertising doesn't go to waste.

4) Seasonality: No matter how great your show is, timing matters. Whenever I consider join a show already in motion, I look at the season to make realistic projections about competition. For example, I once turned down a co-producing opportunity on a show I loved simply because it was opening next to a very hot, similarly scaled production, and I feared it would get lost in the shuffle (spoiler: it did). I think about how close a show is opening to major seasonal markers—especially Tony season and the holidays, which both can provide huge boosts of momentum for any new show. A fall opening needs enough runway to be on tourist radars by Thanksgiving and Christmas. A spring opening needs to be able to stand out in a crowded field (Last spring, nine new musicals opened within just a few weeks).

Musicals are miracles. Even when the material is strong, the cast is stellar, and the design is impeccable, you don’t truly know how a show will play until it’s in front of paying audiences. Of course, not one producer on Broadway could have predicted COVID, 9/11, Hurricane Sandy, or countless other events that have influenced the success of various new shows opening at the same time. At the end of the day, Broadway's most successful producers are really just Broadway's most successful guessers.

The best thing we can do is lead by faith—but not just good-hearted faith, but faith based on something.

Because sometimes, the shows with the best projections turn out to be even better than anyone dared to dream.

To your success,

Jonathan Hogue